Rare patterns down 17.4% since July
Common patterns on the same skins fell 16.6%, so the extra paid for rare seeds held. The top sale was an AK-47 Case Hardened #661 at $36,000.
Most pattern prices fell between July and September. Rare patterns lost about as much as the other seeds on the same skins.
Two AK-47 Case Hardened sales, #661 and #670, are the highest prices we've recorded since tracking began in May 2026.
Why July and not August? Our record of pattern sales is incomplete for August, so every change on this page compares September with July. There's more on that at the end.
AK-47 Case Hardened #661, Field-Tested, float 0.1813, no stickers. Sold on 27 September. It is the only sale of this seed in our data.
Rare and common moved together
The two lines are less than two points apart after three months. If buyers start paying less for patterns specifically, the rare line will fall below the common line and stay there.
Rare Pattern Index and Common Pattern Index
June 2026 = 100. August has no reading, so the last step runs from July to September. Rare: the tracked pattern groups. Common: the other patterns of the same skins and wears. If the lines split, the price of the pattern itself changed.
Source: completed CSFloat sales recorded by cs2pattern-prices.com. Method at the end of the page.
Show the data
| Month | Rare | Common |
|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| July 2026 | 92.4 | 93.2 |
| August 2026 | no reading | no reading |
| September 2026 | 76.3 | 77.8 |
Gloves and rifles drove the drop
Gloves and rifles make up three quarters of the index. Glove patterns fell more than common gloves, while pistol patterns fell less than common pistols. No knife group sold often enough to appear.
A longer rare bar means pattern buyers in that sector pulled back more than buyers of the skin.
| Sector | Share of pattern index | Change, July to September | Points | Pattern sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gloves | 43.3% | −16.6% −14.4% | −7.21 | 1,363 |
| Rifles | 32.9% | −19.7% −18.7% | −6.49 | 10,907 |
| Pistols | 18.4% | −14.2% −17.2% | −2.62 | 5,729 |
| SMGs | 3.6% | −20.9% −19.0% | −0.75 | 4,172 |
| Sniper | 1.7% | −19.1% −18.7% | −0.32 | 240 |
| Shotguns | 0.0% | −5.4% −20.7% | 0.00 | 82 |
| Index | 100% | Rare −17.4% · Common −16.6% | −17.40 | 22,493 |
Points are each sector's share of the Rare Pattern Index times its change, and they add up to the index. Both columns use the same weights. Pattern sales are July and September together. Grey rows have too few sales to read.
Three skins, nearly half the fall
AK-47 Aphrodite, Sport Gloves Ultra Violent and M4A1-S Fade account for nearly half of the drop. The Ultra Violent figure rests on about 150 sales, so it may not hold. Nocts and the AK-47 Case Hardened, both at the 10% cap, barely moved.
Points taken off the Rare Pattern Index
July to September 2026. A skin's points are its share of the index times its price change, so a heavy skin with a small drop can count more than a light one with a large drop.
Sales: the skin's tracked pattern sales in July / September.
Tier 1 had the most risers and a deeper drop
Tier 1 had the most groups that rose, but its median fell further than Tiers 2 to 4. With few sales per group, Tier 1 prices swing more in both directions.
| Tier | Group and wear pairs | Rose | Median change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | 62 | 14 of 62 | −19.9% |
| Tier 2 | 59 | 6 of 59 | −15.9% |
| Tier 3 | 58 | 5 of 58 | −15.3% |
| Tier 4 | 41 | 1 of 41 | −13.1% |
| Untiered | 70 | 7 of 70 | −21.9% |
Median change in each pair's median price, July to September. Tier 5 has only 3 pairs and is left out.
Mid-range patterns fell most
Patterns between $50 and $500 fell the most, and few of them rose. Budget and high-end patterns fell by about the same amount. In each band, rare and common patterns stayed within two points of each other. Tier 1 Blue Gems and similar items sell too rarely to be included.
| Band | Pairs | Rose | Change, July to September | Level since June |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BudgetUnder $50 | 19021 skins | 23 of 190 | −15.2% −16.8% | 73.1 / 75.4 |
| Mid-range$50 to $500 | 7617 skins | 4 of 76 | −19.4% −18.2% | 72.3 / 74.9 |
| High-end$500 and up | 2710 skins | 6 of 27 | −14.6% −13.8% | 79.0 / 81.2 |
Hover or tap a band to see its skins. Each band is its own index, weighted like the main one. The 10% skin cap only applies when a band has at least ten skins. Level since June: rare / common, June = 100.
Few gains, mostly in expensive groups
The table counts groups with a July median of $10 or more. Three of the five gains are groups that sell for hundreds of dollars, led by Tier 3 Blue Gems on the AK-47 Case Hardened. The largest drop rests on five sales in each month.
Biggest gains
| Group | Wear | July | September | Change | Sales Jul / Sep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Gems Tier 3 AK-47 Case Hardened | WW | $387.77 | $468.70 | +20.9% | 12 / 9 |
| Double Centered Dragon Tier 1 Specialist Gloves Cloud Chaser | FT | $917.63 | $1,080.14 | +17.7% | 12 / 11 |
| Max Black Tier 3 Sport Gloves Nocts | MW | $1,150 | $1,283.84 | +11.6% | 8 / 9 |
| Max White Tier 1 Glock-18 Trace Lock | FN | $15.50 | $17.00 | +9.7% | 36 / 29 |
| Blue Gems Tier 2 Five-SeveN Case Hardened | MW | $89.00 | $96.69 | +8.6% | 15 / 9 |
Biggest drops
| Group | Wear | July | September | Change | Sales Jul / Sep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoner Cat Tier 1 AWP PAW | MW | $37.00 | $6.65 | −82.0% | 5 / 5 |
| Yellow Mountains M4A1-S Solitude | FN | $69.22 | $34.90 | −49.6% | 21 / 23 |
| Pink Gems Tier 1 AK-47 Aphrodite | FT | $50.00 | $27.00 | −46.0% | 49 / 27 |
| Max Purple Tier 1 Sport Gloves Ultra Violent | FT | $2,221.79 | $1,231.41 | −44.6% | 16 / 10 |
| Blue Gems Tier 1 Desert Eagle Heat Treated | WW | $99.90 | $56.58 | −43.4% | 9 / 16 |
Median sale price in each month, same wear. Sales: how many times the group sold in that wear in July and in September. Only groups with a July median of $10 or more and at least 5 sales in each month.
Six of the top ten were AK-47 Case Hardened
Six of the ten largest sales were AK-47 Case Hardened Blue Gems, and six carried stickers. Two different #670s sold: one in Minimal Wear with four Katowice 2014 Titans, one in Field-Tested with a Crown (Foil). The sales don't show how much of the price gap comes from the stickers.
| # | Item | Wear | Price | Date | Stickers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AK-47 Case Hardened #661 Blue Gems Tier 1 | FT float 0.1813 | $36,000 | 27 Sep | None |
| 2 | AK-47 Case Hardened #670 Blue Gems Tier 1 | MW float 0.1419 | $26,750 | 2 Sep | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014 ×2, Titan | Katowice 2014 ×2 |
| 3 | Butterfly Knife Case Hardened #182 Blue Gems Tier 1 | WW float 0.3963 | $10,999 | 25 Sep | None |
| 4 | AK-47 Case Hardened #670 Blue Gems Tier 1 | FT float 0.1882 | $7,199 | 30 Sep | Crown (Foil) |
| 5 | AK-47 Case Hardened #955 Blue Gems Tier 1 | MW float 0.1224 | $7,100 | 1 Sep | Crown (Foil) ×4 |
| 6 | AK-47 Case Hardened #592 Blue Gems Tier 2 | MW float 0.1120 | $4,851 | 17 Sep | molodoy (Embroidered) | Budapest 2025, FalleN | Budapest 2025, Team Spirit (Gold) | Budapest 2025 |
| 7 | Karambit Case Hardened #453 Blue Gems Tier 2 | FT float 0.1636 | $4,600 | 26 Sep | None |
| 8 | Sport Gloves Ultra Violent #665 Max Purple Tier 1 | MW float 0.1318 | $4,500 | 4 Sep | None |
| 9 | Glock-18 Fade #211 98% | FN float 0.0510 | $4,099 | 26 Sep | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014 |
| 10 | AK-47 Case Hardened #179 Blue Gems Tier 1 | FT float 0.2649 | $3,400.14 | 27 Sep | Crown (Foil), Jackass (Holo) |
Most resales lost money
We match resales on skin, seed and exact float. In September, 2,671 items in our data sold again. The median resale was 8.3% below the previous sale, about a month after it.
Gains
Losses
Prices are CSFloat sale prices before fees.
Fewer sales than in June and July
We recorded fewer pattern sales than in June and July. Some sales on the busiest skins go unrecorded, so the exact size of the drop is uncertain.
The money spent fell much less than the number of sales. The median sale fell too, so a few large sales, including the two AKs, kept the total up.
Tracked pattern sales by month
StatTrak left out. August is incomplete.
Source: completed CSFloat sales of tracked seeds, recorded by cs2pattern-prices.com.
Show the data
| Month | Sales | Value | Median sale |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | 13,118 | $1.73M | $21.43 |
| July 2026 | 13,183 | $1.65M | $19.10 |
| August 2026 (incomplete) | 4,001 | $0.65M | $20.00 |
| September 2026 | 11,214 | $1.61M | $18.42 |
What this month's data can't tell you
- August is incomplete.We recorded about 30% of the usual pattern sales in August because of a problem on our side. Every change on this page skips August and compares September with July.
- Sale counts run low on busy skins.On the busiest skins we miss some sales, so a lower count doesn't prove that demand fell.
- Thin groups swing hard.A group with five sales a month can move 40% or more on one unusual sale. Every figure on this page shows how many sales it rests on.
- Stickers aren't priced.A sticker craft can add thousands to a sale, and we can't separate that from the pattern yet.
How we measure
- Every price is a completed CSFloat cash sale. StatTrak is left out.
- Rare Pattern Index: each tracked group in each wear is one pair. Its price for the month is the median sale. A pair counts if it has at least 5 sales in both months.
- Common Pattern Index: the patterns of the same skins and wears that aren't in a tracked group. It comes from CSFloat's daily sales for each skin and wear, with our tracked sales taken out. It uses the rare index's own pairs and weights, so the two compare directly. A pair needs at least 20 common sales in both months, and is left out if tracked patterns make up more than 90% of its sales. Each common change is capped at ±50%, because the leftover price can be noisy.
- Weights: each pair counts by its traded value in the earlier month. No skin can weigh more than 10% of an index.
- Price bands: each group in each wear is sorted by its median price in the earlier month: under $50, $50 to $500 and $500 and up. So a Factory New pair can be High-end while a Battle-Scarred pair of the same group is Budget.
- Months are chained, starting at 100 in June 2026, when our pattern tracking had been complete for a few weeks. A month with a data gap is skipped.